Cipher/Insights

How we're doing.

Cipher's live track record by signal class: how often each pattern beat its sector, with credible intervals and out-of-sample Brier scores.

Sentiment diffusion

From niche chatter to mainstream tape.

Every sentiment signal Cipher tracks lives in one of three tiers. Most opportunities surface in the inner rings before they reach the outer ones — and the gap is where alpha decays.

Niche

Reddit, Discord, niche newsletters · Tier 01

Transitional

Sell-side notes, FactSet, Bloomberg · Tier 02

Mainstream

Major media, ETF flows, indices · Tier 03

Engine maturity0 of 236 cells active · avg 11.5 / 30 ESS

Closest to graduating: institutional · contrarian inflow — 29.5 / 30 ESS (98%)

Data points indexed

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Rotating watchlist

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Resolved outcomes

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Thesis confidence

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Pattern library · 236 cells · 95% credible intervals

Signal × Pattern	Cap	Horizon	ESS	→ Graduation	95% CI	DSR	Status
DIFFUSION mainstream first	LARGE	3d	5.8(N=188)	5.8 / 30 ESS · 19%	[13.1%–78.3%]	—	EXPLORATORY
DIFFUSION mainstream first	LARGE	7d	5.7(N=183)	5.7 / 30 ESS · 19%	[13.2%–78.4%]	—	EXPLORATORY
DIFFUSION mainstream first	LARGE	14d	5.7(N=172)	5.7 / 30 ESS · 19%	[8.5%–72.6%]	—	EXPLORATORY
DIFFUSION mainstream first	LARGE	30d	5.0(N=116)	5.0 / 30 ESS · 17%	[7.5%–71.3%]	—	EXPLORATORY
DIFFUSION mainstream first	LARGE	60d	1.0(N=16)	1.0 / 30 ESS · 3%	[8.7%–72.9%]	—	EXPLORATORY
DIFFUSION mainstream first	MID	3d	0.0(N=73)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[24.3%–47.7%]	—	EXPLORATORY
DIFFUSION mainstream first	MID	7d	0.0(N=68)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[26.1%–50.7%]	—	EXPLORATORY
DIFFUSION mainstream first	MID	14d	0.0(N=58)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[16.6%–41.5%]	—	EXPLORATORY
DIFFUSION mainstream first	MID	30d	0.0(N=42)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[15.9%–45.4%]	—	EXPLORATORY
DIFFUSION mainstream first	MID	60d	0.0(N=4)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[0.0%–68.3%]	—	EXPLORATORY
DIFFUSION mainstream first	SMALL	3d	0.0(N=74)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[18.9%–41.3%]	—	EXPLORATORY
DIFFUSION mainstream first	SMALL	7d	0.0(N=69)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[28.7%–53.5%]	—	EXPLORATORY
DIFFUSION mainstream first	SMALL	14d	0.0(N=57)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[24.7%–51.6%]	—	EXPLORATORY
DIFFUSION mainstream first	SMALL	30d	0.0(N=33)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[25.8%–60.7%]	—	EXPLORATORY
DIFFUSION niche leads	LARGE	3d	0.0(N=12)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[25.2%–79.1%]	—	EXPLORATORY
DIFFUSION niche leads	LARGE	7d	0.0(N=10)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[23.4%–80.2%]	—	EXPLORATORY
DIFFUSION niche leads	LARGE	14d	0.0(N=5)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[15.2%–78.7%]	—	EXPLORATORY
DIFFUSION niche leads	LARGE	30d	0.0(N=1)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[8.6%–72.9%]	—	EXPLORATORY
DIFFUSION niche leads	MID	3d	0.0(N=3)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[0.0%–52.0%]	—	EXPLORATORY
DIFFUSION niche leads	MID	7d	0.0(N=2)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[0.0%–63.0%]	—	EXPLORATORY
DIFFUSION niche leads	MID	14d	0.0(N=1)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[0.0%–79.5%]	—	EXPLORATORY
DIFFUSION niche leads	SMALL	3d	0.0(N=7)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[22.0%–66.6%]	—	EXPLORATORY
DIFFUSION niche leads	SMALL	7d	0.0(N=7)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[22.0%–66.6%]	—	EXPLORATORY
DIFFUSION niche leads	SMALL	14d	0.0(N=5)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[21.9%–66.4%]	—	EXPLORATORY
DIFFUSION niche leads	SMALL	30d	0.0(N=3)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[24.0%–68.1%]	—	EXPLORATORY
DIFFUSION simultaneous	LARGE	3d	3.7(N=80)	3.7 / 30 ESS · 12%	[9.8%–74.7%]	—	EXPLORATORY
DIFFUSION simultaneous	LARGE	7d	3.7(N=76)	3.7 / 30 ESS · 12%	[6.5%–70.4%]	—	EXPLORATORY
DIFFUSION simultaneous	LARGE	14d	3.7(N=58)	3.7 / 30 ESS · 12%	[6.0%–69.6%]	—	EXPLORATORY
DIFFUSION simultaneous	LARGE	30d	3.0(N=41)	3.0 / 30 ESS · 10%	[6.8%–70.7%]	—	EXPLORATORY
DIFFUSION simultaneous	MID	3d	0.0(N=7)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[21.5%–46.7%]	—	EXPLORATORY
DIFFUSION simultaneous	MID	7d	0.0(N=5)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[21.8%–46.7%]	—	EXPLORATORY
DIFFUSION simultaneous	MID	14d	0.0(N=5)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[21.8%–46.7%]	—	EXPLORATORY
DIFFUSION simultaneous	MID	30d	0.0(N=3)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[20.8%–99.2%]	—	EXPLORATORY
DIFFUSION simultaneous	SMALL	3d	0.0(N=8)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[22.9%–67.6%]	—	EXPLORATORY
DIFFUSION simultaneous	SMALL	7d	0.0(N=8)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[24.6%–69.4%]	—	EXPLORATORY
DIFFUSION simultaneous	SMALL	14d	0.0(N=8)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[19.6%–63.9%]	—	EXPLORATORY
DIFFUSION simultaneous	SMALL	30d	0.0(N=5)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[20.6%–65.0%]	—	EXPLORATORY
INSIDER cluster buying	LARGE	3d	79.3(N=86)	ESS met · proving edge	[26.2%–53.6%]	—	EXPLORATORY
INSIDER cluster buying	LARGE	7d	72.5(N=78)	deprecated	[28.9%–57.5%]	—	DEPRECATED
INSIDER cluster buying	LARGE	14d	62.9(N=66)	deprecated	[15.5%–43.3%]	—	DEPRECATED
INSIDER cluster buying	LARGE	30d	53.2(N=55)	ESS met · proving edge	[20.3%–49.5%]	—	EXPLORATORY
INSIDER cluster buying	LARGE	60d	7.0(N=7)	7.0 / 30 ESS · 23%	[18.0%–51.7%]	—	EXPLORATORY
INSIDER cluster buying	MID	3d	22.8(N=24)	22.8 / 30 ESS · 76%	[22.3%–59.4%]	—	EXPLORATORY
INSIDER cluster buying	MID	7d	21.9(N=23)	21.9 / 30 ESS · 73%	[20.3%–57.1%]	—	EXPLORATORY
INSIDER cluster buying	MID	14d	19.2(N=20)	19.2 / 30 ESS · 64%	[23.2%–60.6%]	—	EXPLORATORY
INSIDER cluster buying	MID	30d	11.7(N=12)	11.7 / 30 ESS · 39%	[20.7%–58.0%]	—	EXPLORATORY
INSIDER cluster buying	MID	60d	2.0(N=2)	2.0 / 30 ESS · 7%	[22.0%–58.0%]	—	EXPLORATORY
INSIDER cluster buying	SMALL	3d	23.2(N=24)	deprecated	[17.4%–61.7%]	—	DEPRECATED
INSIDER cluster buying	SMALL	7d	22.3(N=23)	deprecated	[19.7%–64.2%]	—	DEPRECATED
INSIDER cluster buying	SMALL	14d	14.6(N=15)	14.6 / 30 ESS · 49%	[10.3%–57.9%]	—	EXPLORATORY
INSIDER cluster buying	SMALL	30d	6.9(N=7)	6.9 / 30 ESS · 23%	[18.1%–72.5%]	—	EXPLORATORY
INSIDER cluster selling	LARGE	3d	132.7(N=141)	deprecated	[23.4%–45.0%]	—	DEPRECATED
INSIDER cluster selling	LARGE	7d	129.0(N=137)	deprecated	[26.1%–48.0%]	—	DEPRECATED
INSIDER cluster selling	LARGE	14d	120.1(N=127)	deprecated	[25.1%–46.9%]	—	DEPRECATED
INSIDER cluster selling	LARGE	30d	87.0(N=91)	ESS met · proving edge	[23.4%–47.9%]	—	EXPLORATORY
INSIDER cluster selling	LARGE	60d	21.8(N=22)	deprecated	[17.6%–51.4%]	—	DEPRECATED
INSIDER cluster selling	MID	3d	37.2(N=39)	ESS met · proving edge	[27.3%–62.9%]	—	EXPLORATORY
INSIDER cluster selling	MID	7d	37.2(N=39)	ESS met · proving edge	[31.4%–66.7%]	—	EXPLORATORY
INSIDER cluster selling	MID	14d	33.6(N=35)	deprecated	[20.7%–55.3%]	—	DEPRECATED
INSIDER cluster selling	MID	30d	21.5(N=22)	21.5 / 30 ESS · 72%	[22.1%–58.9%]	—	EXPLORATORY
INSIDER cluster selling	MID	60d	2.0(N=2)	2.0 / 30 ESS · 7%	[22.0%–58.0%]	—	EXPLORATORY
INSIDER cluster selling	SMALL	3d	31.2(N=33)	deprecated	[18.0%–60.3%]	—	DEPRECATED
INSIDER cluster selling	SMALL	7d	31.0(N=33)	deprecated	[33.5%–75.7%]	—	DEPRECATED
INSIDER cluster selling	SMALL	14d	27.3(N=29)	27.3 / 30 ESS · 91%	[28.4%–72.2%]	—	EXPLORATORY
INSIDER cluster selling	SMALL	30d	17.3(N=18)	17.3 / 30 ESS · 58%	[24.3%–73.6%]	—	EXPLORATORY
INSIDER cluster selling	SMALL	60d	5.0(N=5)	5.0 / 30 ESS · 17%	[12.7%–66.8%]	—	EXPLORATORY
INSIDER lone buy	LARGE	3d	35.0(N=37)	deprecated	[15.0%–47.8%]	—	DEPRECATED
INSIDER lone buy	LARGE	7d	34.6(N=37)	deprecated	[21.6%–55.8%]	—	DEPRECATED
INSIDER lone buy	LARGE	14d	33.9(N=37)	deprecated	[18.8%–52.2%]	—	DEPRECATED
INSIDER lone buy	LARGE	30d	29.2(N=31)	29.2 / 30 ESS · 97%	[17.5%–51.1%]	—	EXPLORATORY
INSIDER lone buy	LARGE	60d	16.9(N=17)	16.9 / 30 ESS · 56%	[18.0%–52.2%]	—	EXPLORATORY
INSIDER lone buy	MID	3d	4.8(N=5)	4.8 / 30 ESS · 16%	[22.4%–58.7%]	—	EXPLORATORY
INSIDER lone buy	MID	7d	4.8(N=5)	4.8 / 30 ESS · 16%	[22.4%–58.8%]	—	EXPLORATORY
INSIDER lone buy	MID	14d	4.0(N=4)	4.0 / 30 ESS · 13%	[22.1%–58.3%]	—	EXPLORATORY
INSIDER lone buy	MID	30d	4.0(N=4)	4.0 / 30 ESS · 13%	[21.9%–58.3%]	—	EXPLORATORY
INSIDER lone buy	SMALL	3d	16.1(N=17)	16.1 / 30 ESS · 54%	[17.8%–69.8%]	—	EXPLORATORY
INSIDER lone buy	SMALL	7d	16.0(N=17)	16.0 / 30 ESS · 53%	[21.5%–73.4%]	—	EXPLORATORY
INSIDER lone buy	SMALL	14d	15.1(N=16)	15.1 / 30 ESS · 50%	[28.9%–80.5%]	—	EXPLORATORY
INSIDER lone buy	SMALL	30d	10.5(N=11)	10.5 / 30 ESS · 35%	[20.9%–74.6%]	—	EXPLORATORY
INSIDER lone buy	SMALL	60d	3.0(N=3)	3.0 / 30 ESS · 10%	[17.0%–71.7%]	—	EXPLORATORY
INSIDER lone sell	LARGE	3d	51.4(N=55)	deprecated	[17.8%–49.1%]	—	DEPRECATED
INSIDER lone sell	LARGE	7d	50.3(N=54)	ESS met · proving edge	[19.6%–51.2%]	—	EXPLORATORY
INSIDER lone sell	LARGE	14d	48.4(N=52)	deprecated	[18.1%–49.0%]	—	DEPRECATED
INSIDER lone sell	LARGE	30d	37.6(N=39)	ESS met · proving edge	[13.5%–44.4%]	—	EXPLORATORY
INSIDER lone sell	LARGE	60d	11.9(N=12)	11.9 / 30 ESS · 40%	[15.4%–48.9%]	—	EXPLORATORY
INSIDER lone sell	MID	3d	8.2(N=9)	8.2 / 30 ESS · 27%	[21.9%–58.8%]	—	EXPLORATORY
INSIDER lone sell	MID	7d	7.4(N=8)	7.4 / 30 ESS · 25%	[21.5%–58.2%]	—	EXPLORATORY
INSIDER lone sell	MID	14d	7.3(N=8)	7.3 / 30 ESS · 24%	[21.2%–58.0%]	—	EXPLORATORY
INSIDER lone sell	MID	30d	4.9(N=5)	4.9 / 30 ESS · 16%	[21.8%–58.1%]	—	EXPLORATORY
INSIDER lone sell	MID	60d	3.0(N=3)	3.0 / 30 ESS · 10%	[22.1%–58.4%]	—	EXPLORATORY
INSIDER lone sell	SMALL	3d	2.9(N=3)	2.9 / 30 ESS · 10%	[16.7%–70.9%]	—	EXPLORATORY
INSIDER lone sell	SMALL	7d	2.8(N=3)	2.8 / 30 ESS · 9%	[18.1%–72.6%]	—	EXPLORATORY
INSIDER lone sell	SMALL	14d	2.8(N=3)	2.8 / 30 ESS · 9%	[18.1%–72.6%]	—	EXPLORATORY
INSIDER lone sell	SMALL	30d	2.0(N=2)	2.0 / 30 ESS · 7%	[17.2%–71.2%]	—	EXPLORATORY
INSIDER lone sell	SMALL	60d	1.0(N=1)	1.0 / 30 ESS · 3%	[18.7%–72.6%]	—	EXPLORATORY
INSTITUTIONAL contrarian inflow	LARGE	3d	55.3(N=184)	deprecated	[19.5%–52.3%]	—	DEPRECATED
INSTITUTIONAL contrarian inflow	LARGE	7d	53.1(N=174)	deprecated	[21.3%–54.9%]	—	DEPRECATED
INSTITUTIONAL contrarian inflow	LARGE	14d	47.2(N=152)	ESS met · proving edge	[28.0%–64.8%]	—	EXPLORATORY
INSTITUTIONAL contrarian inflow	LARGE	30d	41.2(N=109)	ESS met · proving edge	[29.2%–65.3%]	—	EXPLORATORY
INSTITUTIONAL contrarian inflow	LARGE	60d	2.0(N=5)	2.0 / 30 ESS · 7%	[6.8%–65.1%]	—	EXPLORATORY
INSTITUTIONAL contrarian inflow	MID	3d	17.8(N=45)	17.8 / 30 ESS · 59%	[11.6%–63.8%]	—	EXPLORATORY
INSTITUTIONAL contrarian inflow	MID	7d	15.3(N=41)	15.3 / 30 ESS · 51%	[25.6%–83.3%]	—	EXPLORATORY
INSTITUTIONAL contrarian inflow	MID	14d	12.9(N=34)	12.9 / 30 ESS · 43%	[22.2%–86.2%]	—	EXPLORATORY
INSTITUTIONAL contrarian inflow	MID	30d	12.8(N=22)	12.8 / 30 ESS · 43%	[21.8%–81.6%]	—	EXPLORATORY
INSTITUTIONAL contrarian inflow	MID	60d	1.0(N=1)	1.0 / 30 ESS · 3%	[12.3%–87.0%]	—	EXPLORATORY
INSTITUTIONAL contrarian inflow	SMALL	3d	29.5(N=53)	deprecated	[16.5%–61.1%]	—	DEPRECATED
INSTITUTIONAL contrarian inflow	SMALL	7d	28.6(N=52)	deprecated	[18.8%–63.7%]	—	DEPRECATED
INSTITUTIONAL contrarian inflow	SMALL	14d	27.8(N=46)	27.8 / 30 ESS · 93%	[17.8%–61.5%]	—	EXPLORATORY
INSTITUTIONAL contrarian inflow	SMALL	30d	22.4(N=31)	deprecated	[20.2%–65.2%]	—	DEPRECATED
INSTITUTIONAL contrarian inflow	SMALL	60d	1.0(N=2)	1.0 / 30 ESS · 3%	[20.0%–77.7%]	—	EXPLORATORY
INSTITUTIONAL contrarian outflow	LARGE	3d	11.0(N=17)	11.0 / 30 ESS · 37%	[10.3%–69.1%]	—	EXPLORATORY
INSTITUTIONAL contrarian outflow	LARGE	7d	11.0(N=17)	11.0 / 30 ESS · 37%	[11.9%–71.1%]	—	EXPLORATORY
INSTITUTIONAL contrarian outflow	LARGE	14d	11.0(N=17)	11.0 / 30 ESS · 37%	[10.3%–69.0%]	—	EXPLORATORY
INSTITUTIONAL contrarian outflow	LARGE	30d	10.9(N=17)	10.9 / 30 ESS · 36%	[7.1%–63.7%]	—	EXPLORATORY
INSTITUTIONAL contrarian outflow	LARGE	60d	9.0(N=17)	9.0 / 30 ESS · 30%	[0.0%–41.8%]	—	EXPLORATORY
INSTITUTIONAL contrarian outflow	SMALL	3d	1.0(N=1)	1.0 / 30 ESS · 3%	[19.0%–76.3%]	—	EXPLORATORY
INSTITUTIONAL contrarian outflow	SMALL	7d	1.0(N=1)	1.0 / 30 ESS · 3%	[19.7%–77.1%]	—	EXPLORATORY
INSTITUTIONAL contrarian outflow	SMALL	14d	1.0(N=1)	1.0 / 30 ESS · 3%	[19.7%–77.1%]	—	EXPLORATORY
INSTITUTIONAL contrarian outflow	SMALL	30d	1.0(N=1)	1.0 / 30 ESS · 3%	[19.8%–77.2%]	—	EXPLORATORY
INSTITUTIONAL contrarian outflow	SMALL	60d	1.0(N=1)	1.0 / 30 ESS · 3%	[20.0%–77.7%]	—	EXPLORATORY
INSTITUTIONAL net accumulation	LARGE	3d	55.2(N=156)	deprecated	[28.2%–60.8%]	—	DEPRECATED
INSTITUTIONAL net accumulation	LARGE	7d	51.4(N=150)	deprecated	[23.7%–56.6%]	—	DEPRECATED
INSTITUTIONAL net accumulation	LARGE	14d	41.0(N=131)	deprecated	[23.9%–61.6%]	—	DEPRECATED
INSTITUTIONAL net accumulation	LARGE	30d	30.0(N=96)	ESS met · proving edge	[21.9%–64.4%]	—	EXPLORATORY
INSTITUTIONAL net accumulation	LARGE	60d	7.9(N=15)	7.9 / 30 ESS · 26%	[17.0%–75.1%]	—	EXPLORATORY
INSTITUTIONAL net accumulation	MID	3d	16.3(N=45)	16.3 / 30 ESS · 54%	[6.5%–64.0%]	—	EXPLORATORY
INSTITUTIONAL net accumulation	MID	7d	16.1(N=44)	16.1 / 30 ESS · 54%	[1.6%–55.1%]	—	EXPLORATORY
INSTITUTIONAL net accumulation	MID	14d	15.4(N=41)	15.4 / 30 ESS · 51%	[0.0%–51.2%]	—	EXPLORATORY
INSTITUTIONAL net accumulation	MID	30d	14.4(N=33)	14.4 / 30 ESS · 48%	[9.4%–64.6%]	—	EXPLORATORY
INSTITUTIONAL net accumulation	MID	60d	5.9(N=10)	5.9 / 30 ESS · 20%	[9.3%–76.5%]	—	EXPLORATORY
INSTITUTIONAL net accumulation	SMALL	3d	18.9(N=55)	18.9 / 30 ESS · 63%	[21.4%–72.5%]	—	EXPLORATORY
INSTITUTIONAL net accumulation	SMALL	7d	17.3(N=52)	17.3 / 30 ESS · 58%	[25.0%–77.7%]	—	EXPLORATORY
INSTITUTIONAL net accumulation	SMALL	14d	15.4(N=42)	15.4 / 30 ESS · 51%	[22.3%–77.0%]	—	EXPLORATORY
INSTITUTIONAL net accumulation	SMALL	30d	13.6(N=32)	13.6 / 30 ESS · 45%	[12.8%–65.7%]	—	EXPLORATORY
INSTITUTIONAL net accumulation	SMALL	60d	2.0(N=8)	2.0 / 30 ESS · 7%	[18.9%–77.1%]	—	EXPLORATORY
INSTITUTIONAL net distribution	LARGE	3d	11.0(N=32)	11.0 / 30 ESS · 37%	[7.2%–65.0%]	—	EXPLORATORY
INSTITUTIONAL net distribution	LARGE	7d	11.0(N=32)	11.0 / 30 ESS · 37%	[7.2%–65.0%]	—	EXPLORATORY
INSTITUTIONAL net distribution	LARGE	14d	11.0(N=32)	11.0 / 30 ESS · 37%	[11.8%–71.0%]	—	EXPLORATORY
INSTITUTIONAL net distribution	LARGE	30d	10.9(N=38)	10.9 / 30 ESS · 36%	[5.7%–61.9%]	—	EXPLORATORY
INSTITUTIONAL net distribution	LARGE	60d	10.9(N=35)	10.9 / 30 ESS · 36%	[11.2%–65.1%]	—	EXPLORATORY
INSTITUTIONAL net distribution	MID	3d	1.0(N=1)	1.0 / 30 ESS · 3%	[9.4%–83.8%]	—	EXPLORATORY
INSTITUTIONAL net distribution	MID	7d	1.0(N=1)	1.0 / 30 ESS · 3%	[11.3%–85.8%]	—	EXPLORATORY
INSTITUTIONAL net distribution	MID	14d	1.0(N=1)	1.0 / 30 ESS · 3%	[11.4%–85.9%]	—	EXPLORATORY
INSTITUTIONAL net distribution	MID	30d	1.0(N=1)	1.0 / 30 ESS · 3%	[11.8%–86.4%]	—	EXPLORATORY
INSTITUTIONAL smart money concentration	LARGE	3d	21.6(N=73)	deprecated	[3.7%–44.6%]	—	DEPRECATED
INSTITUTIONAL smart money concentration	LARGE	7d	17.2(N=66)	17.2 / 30 ESS · 57%	[1.1%–45.2%]	—	EXPLORATORY
INSTITUTIONAL smart money concentration	LARGE	14d	15.4(N=61)	15.4 / 30 ESS · 51%	[2.1%–47.8%]	—	EXPLORATORY
INSTITUTIONAL smart money concentration	LARGE	30d	7.9(N=38)	7.9 / 30 ESS · 26%	[7.1%–63.4%]	—	EXPLORATORY
INSTITUTIONAL smart money concentration	MID	3d	17.9(N=44)	17.9 / 30 ESS · 60%	[5.2%–54.6%]	—	EXPLORATORY
INSTITUTIONAL smart money concentration	MID	7d	14.7(N=40)	14.7 / 30 ESS · 49%	[14.1%–74.1%]	—	EXPLORATORY
INSTITUTIONAL smart money concentration	MID	14d	13.8(N=36)	13.8 / 30 ESS · 46%	[26.2%–86.6%]	—	EXPLORATORY
INSTITUTIONAL smart money concentration	MID	30d	12.4(N=29)	12.4 / 30 ESS · 41%	[18.8%–79.6%]	—	EXPLORATORY
INSTITUTIONAL smart money concentration	MID	60d	5.0(N=8)	5.0 / 30 ESS · 17%	[22.7%–92.0%]	—	EXPLORATORY
INSTITUTIONAL smart money concentration	SMALL	3d	12.0(N=29)	12.0 / 30 ESS · 40%	[10.1%–63.3%]	—	EXPLORATORY
INSTITUTIONAL smart money concentration	SMALL	7d	10.3(N=27)	10.3 / 30 ESS · 34%	[12.4%–67.9%]	—	EXPLORATORY
INSTITUTIONAL smart money concentration	SMALL	14d	9.4(N=25)	9.4 / 30 ESS · 31%	[19.3%–76.0%]	—	EXPLORATORY
INSTITUTIONAL smart money concentration	SMALL	30d	4.9(N=14)	4.9 / 30 ESS · 16%	[19.7%–78.2%]	—	EXPLORATORY
INSTITUTIONAL smart money concentration	SMALL	60d	1.0(N=2)	1.0 / 30 ESS · 3%	[20.0%–77.6%]	—	EXPLORATORY
TECHNICAL breakdown	LARGE	3d	7.0(N=135)	7.0 / 30 ESS · 23%	[4.1%–73.7%]	—	EXPLORATORY
TECHNICAL breakdown	LARGE	7d	7.0(N=129)	7.0 / 30 ESS · 23%	[4.1%–73.7%]	—	EXPLORATORY
TECHNICAL breakdown	LARGE	14d	7.0(N=111)	7.0 / 30 ESS · 23%	[4.1%–73.6%]	—	EXPLORATORY
TECHNICAL breakdown	LARGE	30d	7.0(N=78)	7.0 / 30 ESS · 23%	[9.1%–79.0%]	—	EXPLORATORY
TECHNICAL breakdown	LARGE	60d	7.0(N=23)	7.0 / 30 ESS · 23%	[23.9%–89.1%]	—	EXPLORATORY
TECHNICAL breakdown	MID	3d	0.0(N=54)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[26.1%–52.6%]	—	EXPLORATORY
TECHNICAL breakdown	MID	7d	0.0(N=48)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[43.6%–72.0%]	—	EXPLORATORY
TECHNICAL breakdown	MID	14d	0.0(N=42)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[46.1%–76.1%]	—	EXPLORATORY
TECHNICAL breakdown	MID	30d	0.0(N=25)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[39.0%–78.2%]	—	EXPLORATORY
TECHNICAL breakdown	MID	60d	0.0(N=5)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[8.0%–79.3%]	—	EXPLORATORY
TECHNICAL breakdown	SMALL	3d	0.0(N=61)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[22.8%–47.8%]	—	EXPLORATORY
TECHNICAL breakdown	SMALL	7d	0.0(N=57)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[33.9%–60.9%]	—	EXPLORATORY
TECHNICAL breakdown	SMALL	14d	0.0(N=48)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[31.2%–60.8%]	—	EXPLORATORY
TECHNICAL breakdown	SMALL	30d	0.0(N=27)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[37.5%–76.3%]	—	EXPLORATORY
TECHNICAL breakdown	SMALL	60d	0.0(N=2)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[19.0%–78.9%]	—	EXPLORATORY
TECHNICAL breakout uptrend	LARGE	3d	0.0(N=9)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[21.0%–81.2%]	—	EXPLORATORY
TECHNICAL breakout uptrend	LARGE	7d	0.0(N=9)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[21.0%–81.2%]	—	EXPLORATORY
TECHNICAL breakout uptrend	LARGE	14d	0.0(N=9)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[34.5%–92.5%]	—	EXPLORATORY
TECHNICAL breakout uptrend	LARGE	30d	0.0(N=4)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[0.3%–66.2%]	—	EXPLORATORY
TECHNICAL breakout uptrend	LARGE	60d	0.0(N=3)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[2.1%–71.0%]	—	EXPLORATORY
TECHNICAL breakout uptrend	SMALL	3d	0.0(N=1)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[15.5%–74.7%]	—	EXPLORATORY
TECHNICAL breakout uptrend	SMALL	7d	0.0(N=1)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[15.5%–74.7%]	—	EXPLORATORY
TECHNICAL consolidation	LARGE	3d	5.0(N=252)	5.0 / 30 ESS · 17%	[5.8%–77.0%]	—	EXPLORATORY
TECHNICAL consolidation	LARGE	7d	5.0(N=234)	5.0 / 30 ESS · 17%	[3.5%–73.9%]	—	EXPLORATORY
TECHNICAL consolidation	LARGE	14d	4.9(N=211)	4.9 / 30 ESS · 16%	[8.6%–80.3%]	—	EXPLORATORY
TECHNICAL consolidation	LARGE	30d	4.8(N=174)	4.8 / 30 ESS · 16%	[12.8%–84.4%]	—	EXPLORATORY
TECHNICAL consolidation	LARGE	60d	3.0(N=51)	3.0 / 30 ESS · 10%	[7.2%–78.7%]	—	EXPLORATORY
TECHNICAL consolidation	MID	3d	0.0(N=57)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[27.8%–53.7%]	—	EXPLORATORY
TECHNICAL consolidation	MID	7d	0.0(N=57)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[26.2%–51.9%]	—	EXPLORATORY
TECHNICAL consolidation	MID	14d	0.0(N=51)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[15.9%–41.1%]	—	EXPLORATORY
TECHNICAL consolidation	MID	30d	0.0(N=47)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[22.8%–50.9%]	—	EXPLORATORY
TECHNICAL consolidation	MID	60d	0.0(N=14)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[18.1%–69.6%]	—	EXPLORATORY
TECHNICAL consolidation	SMALL	3d	0.0(N=59)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[23.6%–49.2%]	—	EXPLORATORY
TECHNICAL consolidation	SMALL	7d	0.0(N=58)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[36.4%–63.3%]	—	EXPLORATORY
TECHNICAL consolidation	SMALL	14d	0.0(N=52)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[35.6%–64.0%]	—	EXPLORATORY
TECHNICAL consolidation	SMALL	30d	0.0(N=38)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[22.0%–54.3%]	—	EXPLORATORY
TECHNICAL consolidation	SMALL	60d	0.0(N=10)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[12.7%–66.2%]	—	EXPLORATORY
TECHNICAL golden cross	LARGE	3d	0.0(N=1)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[6.4%–78.4%]	—	EXPLORATORY
TECHNICAL golden cross	LARGE	7d	0.0(N=1)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[10.6%–83.3%]	—	EXPLORATORY
TECHNICAL golden cross	LARGE	14d	0.0(N=1)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[10.6%–83.3%]	—	EXPLORATORY
TECHNICAL golden cross	MID	3d	0.0(N=1)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[2.1%–82.6%]	—	EXPLORATORY
TECHNICAL golden cross	MID	7d	0.0(N=1)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[2.1%–82.6%]	—	EXPLORATORY
TECHNICAL golden cross	MID	14d	0.0(N=1)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[2.1%–82.6%]	—	EXPLORATORY
TECHNICAL overbought uptrend	LARGE	3d	6.0(N=41)	6.0 / 30 ESS · 20%	[5.0%–75.5%]	—	EXPLORATORY
TECHNICAL overbought uptrend	LARGE	7d	6.0(N=41)	6.0 / 30 ESS · 20%	[5.0%–75.5%]	—	EXPLORATORY
TECHNICAL overbought uptrend	LARGE	14d	6.0(N=39)	6.0 / 30 ESS · 20%	[7.3%–78.5%]	—	EXPLORATORY
TECHNICAL overbought uptrend	LARGE	30d	6.0(N=42)	6.0 / 30 ESS · 20%	[10.1%–81.3%]	—	EXPLORATORY
TECHNICAL overbought uptrend	LARGE	60d	6.0(N=21)	6.0 / 30 ESS · 20%	[12.6%–80.7%]	—	EXPLORATORY
TECHNICAL overbought uptrend	MID	3d	0.0(N=19)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[9.0%–50.4%]	—	EXPLORATORY
TECHNICAL overbought uptrend	MID	7d	0.0(N=16)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[7.1%–51.6%]	—	EXPLORATORY
TECHNICAL overbought uptrend	MID	14d	0.0(N=14)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[0.3%–43.1%]	—	EXPLORATORY
TECHNICAL overbought uptrend	MID	30d	0.0(N=10)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[0.0%–36.3%]	—	EXPLORATORY
TECHNICAL overbought uptrend	SMALL	3d	0.0(N=3)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[15.1%–74.9%]	—	EXPLORATORY
TECHNICAL overbought uptrend	SMALL	7d	0.0(N=3)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[18.1%–78.1%]	—	EXPLORATORY
TECHNICAL overbought uptrend	SMALL	14d	0.0(N=3)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[18.1%–78.1%]	—	EXPLORATORY
TECHNICAL overbought uptrend	SMALL	30d	0.0(N=3)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[15.1%–74.9%]	—	EXPLORATORY
TECHNICAL overbought uptrend	SMALL	60d	0.0(N=2)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[16.4%–76.2%]	—	EXPLORATORY
TECHNICAL oversold downtrend	LARGE	3d	0.0(N=2)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[14.4%–87.0%]	—	EXPLORATORY
TECHNICAL oversold downtrend	LARGE	7d	0.0(N=2)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[14.4%–87.0%]	—	EXPLORATORY
TECHNICAL oversold downtrend	LARGE	14d	0.0(N=2)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[9.1%–81.3%]	—	EXPLORATORY
TECHNICAL oversold downtrend	LARGE	30d	0.0(N=1)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[6.4%–78.4%]	—	EXPLORATORY
TECHNICAL oversold downtrend	SMALL	3d	0.0(N=4)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[20.3%–80.2%]	—	EXPLORATORY
TECHNICAL oversold downtrend	SMALL	7d	0.0(N=4)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[20.3%–80.2%]	—	EXPLORATORY
TECHNICAL oversold downtrend	SMALL	14d	0.0(N=4)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[20.3%–80.2%]	—	EXPLORATORY
TECHNICAL oversold downtrend	SMALL	30d	0.0(N=4)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[13.6%–72.9%]	—	EXPLORATORY
TECHNICAL pullback in uptrend	LARGE	3d	0.0(N=62)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[19.6%–43.3%]	—	EXPLORATORY
TECHNICAL pullback in uptrend	LARGE	7d	0.0(N=61)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[22.8%–47.3%]	—	EXPLORATORY
TECHNICAL pullback in uptrend	LARGE	14d	0.0(N=58)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[27.1%–53.0%]	—	EXPLORATORY
TECHNICAL pullback in uptrend	LARGE	30d	0.0(N=38)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[15.4%–45.5%]	—	EXPLORATORY
TECHNICAL pullback in uptrend	LARGE	60d	0.0(N=8)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[23.2%–85.1%]	—	EXPLORATORY
TECHNICAL pullback in uptrend	MID	3d	0.0(N=4)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[29.3%–100.0%]	—	EXPLORATORY
TECHNICAL pullback in uptrend	MID	7d	0.0(N=4)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[19.1%–93.3%]	—	EXPLORATORY
TECHNICAL pullback in uptrend	MID	14d	0.0(N=4)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[19.1%–93.3%]	—	EXPLORATORY
TECHNICAL pullback in uptrend	MID	30d	0.0(N=3)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[12.6%–90.1%]	—	EXPLORATORY
TECHNICAL pullback in uptrend	SMALL	3d	0.0(N=15)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[11.2%–58.1%]	—	EXPLORATORY
TECHNICAL pullback in uptrend	SMALL	7d	0.0(N=14)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[12.1%–60.5%]	—	EXPLORATORY
TECHNICAL pullback in uptrend	SMALL	14d	0.0(N=12)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[10.5%–60.8%]	—	EXPLORATORY
TECHNICAL pullback in uptrend	SMALL	30d	0.0(N=9)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[10.1%–64.1%]	—	EXPLORATORY

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LLM rolling IC — last 30 days

IC by signal class

Signal	IC	95% CI	n
INSIDER	+0.117	[+0.096, +0.146]	25
INSTITUTIONAL	+0.092	[+0.045, +0.111]	12