Cipher/Insights

How we're doing.

Cipher's live track record by signal class: how often each pattern beat its sector, with credible intervals and out-of-sample Brier scores.

Sentiment diffusion

From niche chatter to mainstream tape.

Every sentiment signal Cipher tracks lives in one of three tiers. Most opportunities surface in the inner rings before they reach the outer ones — and the gap is where alpha decays.

Niche

Reddit, Discord, niche newsletters · Tier 01

Transitional

Sell-side notes, FactSet, Bloomberg · Tier 02

Mainstream

Major media, ETF flows, indices · Tier 03

Engine maturity0 of 124 cells active · avg 5.1 / 30 ESS

Closest to graduating: insider · cluster selling — 28.0 / 30 ESS (93%)

Data points indexed

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Rotating watchlist

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Resolved outcomes

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Thesis confidence

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Pattern library · 124 cells · 95% credible intervals

Signal × Pattern	Cap	Horizon	ESS	→ Graduation	95% CI	Status
DIFFUSION mainstream first	LARGE	3d	5.0(N=27)	5.0 / 30 ESS · 17%	[35.5%–70.2%]	EXPLORATORY
DIFFUSION mainstream first	LARGE	7d	5.0(N=19)	5.0 / 30 ESS · 17%	[35.5%–70.2%]	EXPLORATORY
DIFFUSION mainstream first	LARGE	14d	3.0(N=8)	3.0 / 30 ESS · 10%	[35.3%–69.6%]	EXPLORATORY
DIFFUSION mainstream first	MID	3d	0.0(N=3)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[0.0%–52.0%]	EXPLORATORY
DIFFUSION mainstream first	MID	7d	0.0(N=2)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[0.0%–63.0%]	EXPLORATORY
DIFFUSION mainstream first	MID	14d	0.0(N=1)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[0.0%–79.5%]	EXPLORATORY
DIFFUSION mainstream first	SMALL	3d	0.0(N=7)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[4.1%–62.6%]	EXPLORATORY
DIFFUSION mainstream first	SMALL	7d	0.0(N=3)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[0.8%–79.2%]	EXPLORATORY
DIFFUSION simultaneous	LARGE	3d	3.0(N=21)	3.0 / 30 ESS · 10%	[35.7%–70.0%]	EXPLORATORY
DIFFUSION simultaneous	LARGE	7d	0.0(N=6)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[35.0%–70.1%]	EXPLORATORY
DIFFUSION simultaneous	SMALL	3d	0.0(N=3)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[20.8%–99.2%]	EXPLORATORY
DIFFUSION simultaneous	SMALL	7d	0.0(N=2)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[37.0%–100.0%]	EXPLORATORY
INSIDER cluster buying	LARGE	3d	23.0(N=23)	23.0 / 30 ESS · 77%	[22.1%–64.5%]	EXPLORATORY
INSIDER cluster buying	LARGE	7d	19.0(N=19)	19.0 / 30 ESS · 63%	[41.0%–85.8%]	EXPLORATORY
INSIDER cluster buying	LARGE	14d	6.0(N=6)	6.0 / 30 ESS · 20%	[0.0%–53.4%]	EXPLORATORY
INSIDER cluster buying	LARGE	30d	1.0(N=1)	1.0 / 30 ESS · 3%	[4.9%–79.0%]	EXPLORATORY
INSIDER cluster buying	MID	3d	3.0(N=3)	3.0 / 30 ESS · 10%	[16.3%–82.2%]	EXPLORATORY
INSIDER cluster buying	MID	7d	3.0(N=3)	3.0 / 30 ESS · 10%	[20.5%–86.2%]	EXPLORATORY
INSIDER cluster buying	MID	14d	2.0(N=2)	2.0 / 30 ESS · 7%	[18.5%–84.5%]	EXPLORATORY
INSIDER cluster selling	LARGE	3d	36.0(N=36)	deprecated	[22.7%–56.3%]	DEPRECATED
INSIDER cluster selling	LARGE	7d	28.0(N=28)	28.0 / 30 ESS · 93%	[23.7%–62.3%]	EXPLORATORY
INSIDER cluster selling	LARGE	14d	18.0(N=18)	18.0 / 30 ESS · 60%	[20.4%–67.8%]	EXPLORATORY
INSIDER cluster selling	LARGE	30d	5.0(N=5)	5.0 / 30 ESS · 17%	[0.0%–57.5%]	EXPLORATORY
INSIDER cluster selling	MID	3d	6.0(N=6)	6.0 / 30 ESS · 20%	[30.5%–91.8%]	EXPLORATORY
INSIDER cluster selling	MID	7d	1.0(N=1)	1.0 / 30 ESS · 3%	[20.1%–85.8%]	EXPLORATORY
INSIDER cluster selling	MID	14d	1.0(N=1)	1.0 / 30 ESS · 3%	[20.1%–85.8%]	EXPLORATORY
INSIDER cluster selling	SMALL	3d	8.0(N=8)	8.0 / 30 ESS · 27%	[20.5%–84.7%]	EXPLORATORY
INSIDER cluster selling	SMALL	7d	7.0(N=7)	7.0 / 30 ESS · 23%	[41.1%–100.0%]	EXPLORATORY
INSIDER cluster selling	SMALL	14d	5.0(N=5)	5.0 / 30 ESS · 17%	[14.9%–86.3%]	EXPLORATORY
INSIDER lone buy	LARGE	3d	21.0(N=21)	21.0 / 30 ESS · 70%	[7.3%–47.0%]	EXPLORATORY
INSIDER lone buy	LARGE	7d	17.0(N=17)	17.0 / 30 ESS · 57%	[26.1%–75.1%]	EXPLORATORY
INSIDER lone buy	LARGE	14d	14.0(N=14)	14.0 / 30 ESS · 47%	[21.4%–74.5%]	EXPLORATORY
INSIDER lone buy	LARGE	30d	3.0(N=3)	3.0 / 30 ESS · 10%	[0.0%–66.5%]	EXPLORATORY
INSIDER lone buy	SMALL	3d	8.0(N=8)	8.0 / 30 ESS · 27%	[20.8%–84.7%]	EXPLORATORY
INSIDER lone buy	SMALL	7d	4.0(N=4)	4.0 / 30 ESS · 13%	[27.0%–98.2%]	EXPLORATORY
INSIDER lone buy	SMALL	14d	3.0(N=3)	3.0 / 30 ESS · 10%	[30.8%–100.0%]	EXPLORATORY
INSIDER lone sell	LARGE	3d	27.0(N=27)	27.0 / 30 ESS · 90%	[5.4%–38.0%]	EXPLORATORY
INSIDER lone sell	LARGE	7d	19.0(N=19)	19.0 / 30 ESS · 63%	[12.0%–56.1%]	EXPLORATORY
INSIDER lone sell	LARGE	14d	12.0(N=12)	12.0 / 30 ESS · 40%	[4.7%–56.4%]	EXPLORATORY
INSIDER lone sell	MID	3d	4.0(N=4)	4.0 / 30 ESS · 13%	[14.2%–79.3%]	EXPLORATORY
INSIDER lone sell	MID	7d	4.0(N=4)	4.0 / 30 ESS · 13%	[14.2%–79.3%]	EXPLORATORY
INSIDER lone sell	MID	14d	3.0(N=3)	3.0 / 30 ESS · 10%	[16.3%–82.2%]	EXPLORATORY
INSIDER lone sell	SMALL	3d	2.0(N=2)	2.0 / 30 ESS · 7%	[11.3%–88.8%]	EXPLORATORY
INSIDER lone sell	SMALL	7d	2.0(N=2)	2.0 / 30 ESS · 7%	[26.1%–100.0%]	EXPLORATORY
INSIDER lone sell	SMALL	14d	1.0(N=1)	1.0 / 30 ESS · 3%	[22.1%–98.7%]	EXPLORATORY
INSTITUTIONAL contrarian inflow	LARGE	3d	20.0(N=54)	20.0 / 30 ESS · 67%	[22.4%–67.1%]	EXPLORATORY
INSTITUTIONAL contrarian inflow	LARGE	7d	11.0(N=34)	11.0 / 30 ESS · 37%	[11.4%–62.4%]	EXPLORATORY
INSTITUTIONAL contrarian inflow	LARGE	14d	2.0(N=5)	2.0 / 30 ESS · 7%	[15.0%–71.5%]	EXPLORATORY
INSTITUTIONAL contrarian inflow	MID	3d	8.0(N=9)	8.0 / 30 ESS · 27%	[15.9%–69.7%]	EXPLORATORY
INSTITUTIONAL contrarian inflow	MID	7d	6.0(N=6)	6.0 / 30 ESS · 20%	[18.1%–73.2%]	EXPLORATORY
INSTITUTIONAL contrarian inflow	MID	14d	1.0(N=1)	1.0 / 30 ESS · 3%	[17.8%–72.3%]	EXPLORATORY
INSTITUTIONAL contrarian inflow	SMALL	3d	8.0(N=13)	8.0 / 30 ESS · 27%	[21.2%–77.0%]	EXPLORATORY
INSTITUTIONAL contrarian inflow	SMALL	7d	7.0(N=11)	7.0 / 30 ESS · 23%	[22.9%–79.3%]	EXPLORATORY
INSTITUTIONAL contrarian inflow	SMALL	14d	1.0(N=2)	1.0 / 30 ESS · 3%	[26.4%–83.0%]	EXPLORATORY
INSTITUTIONAL contrarian outflow	LARGE	3d	11.0(N=17)	11.0 / 30 ESS · 37%	[18.0%–70.7%]	EXPLORATORY
INSTITUTIONAL contrarian outflow	LARGE	7d	11.0(N=17)	11.0 / 30 ESS · 37%	[21.5%–74.5%]	EXPLORATORY
INSTITUTIONAL contrarian outflow	LARGE	14d	11.0(N=17)	11.0 / 30 ESS · 37%	[17.9%–70.5%]	EXPLORATORY
INSTITUTIONAL contrarian outflow	SMALL	3d	1.0(N=1)	1.0 / 30 ESS · 3%	[24.7%–81.5%]	EXPLORATORY
INSTITUTIONAL contrarian outflow	SMALL	7d	1.0(N=1)	1.0 / 30 ESS · 3%	[26.4%–83.0%]	EXPLORATORY
INSTITUTIONAL contrarian outflow	SMALL	14d	1.0(N=1)	1.0 / 30 ESS · 3%	[26.4%–83.0%]	EXPLORATORY
INSTITUTIONAL net accumulation	LARGE	3d	18.0(N=40)	18.0 / 30 ESS · 60%	[20.9%–67.4%]	EXPLORATORY
INSTITUTIONAL net accumulation	LARGE	7d	15.0(N=30)	15.0 / 30 ESS · 50%	[14.3%–62.3%]	EXPLORATORY
INSTITUTIONAL net accumulation	LARGE	14d	8.0(N=16)	8.0 / 30 ESS · 27%	[20.9%–76.3%]	EXPLORATORY
INSTITUTIONAL net accumulation	MID	3d	7.0(N=14)	7.0 / 30 ESS · 23%	[16.9%–71.5%]	EXPLORATORY
INSTITUTIONAL net accumulation	MID	7d	7.0(N=12)	7.0 / 30 ESS · 23%	[14.1%–68.1%]	EXPLORATORY
INSTITUTIONAL net accumulation	MID	14d	5.0(N=8)	5.0 / 30 ESS · 17%	[13.7%–68.4%]	EXPLORATORY
INSTITUTIONAL net accumulation	MID	30d	1.0(N=1)	1.0 / 30 ESS · 3%	[16.5%–70.8%]	EXPLORATORY
INSTITUTIONAL net accumulation	SMALL	3d	10.0(N=18)	10.0 / 30 ESS · 33%	[25.4%–79.4%]	EXPLORATORY
INSTITUTIONAL net accumulation	SMALL	7d	7.0(N=14)	7.0 / 30 ESS · 23%	[19.3%–75.7%]	EXPLORATORY
INSTITUTIONAL net accumulation	SMALL	14d	2.0(N=8)	2.0 / 30 ESS · 7%	[25.1%–82.4%]	EXPLORATORY
INSTITUTIONAL net distribution	LARGE	3d	11.0(N=32)	11.0 / 30 ESS · 37%	[11.4%–62.7%]	EXPLORATORY
INSTITUTIONAL net distribution	LARGE	7d	11.0(N=32)	11.0 / 30 ESS · 37%	[11.4%–62.7%]	EXPLORATORY
INSTITUTIONAL net distribution	LARGE	14d	11.0(N=29)	11.0 / 30 ESS · 37%	[21.6%–74.6%]	EXPLORATORY
INSTITUTIONAL net distribution	LARGE	30d	0.0(N=6)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[10.4%–65.1%]	EXPLORATORY
INSTITUTIONAL net distribution	MID	3d	1.0(N=1)	1.0 / 30 ESS · 3%	[16.5%–70.8%]	EXPLORATORY
INSTITUTIONAL net distribution	MID	7d	1.0(N=1)	1.0 / 30 ESS · 3%	[17.8%–72.3%]	EXPLORATORY
INSTITUTIONAL smart money concentration	LARGE	3d	3.0(N=9)	3.0 / 30 ESS · 10%	[11.8%–67.9%]	EXPLORATORY
INSTITUTIONAL smart money concentration	LARGE	7d	1.0(N=3)	1.0 / 30 ESS · 3%	[15.8%–71.9%]	EXPLORATORY
INSTITUTIONAL smart money concentration	MID	3d	10.0(N=15)	10.0 / 30 ESS · 33%	[13.8%–65.7%]	EXPLORATORY
INSTITUTIONAL smart money concentration	MID	7d	10.0(N=13)	10.0 / 30 ESS · 33%	[17.0%–69.5%]	EXPLORATORY
INSTITUTIONAL smart money concentration	MID	14d	5.0(N=8)	5.0 / 30 ESS · 17%	[18.8%–74.3%]	EXPLORATORY
INSTITUTIONAL smart money concentration	SMALL	3d	4.0(N=8)	4.0 / 30 ESS · 13%	[27.6%–84.8%]	EXPLORATORY
INSTITUTIONAL smart money concentration	SMALL	7d	1.0(N=2)	1.0 / 30 ESS · 3%	[26.4%–83.0%]	EXPLORATORY
INSTITUTIONAL smart money concentration	SMALL	14d	1.0(N=2)	1.0 / 30 ESS · 3%	[26.4%–83.0%]	EXPLORATORY
TECHNICAL breakdown	LARGE	3d	7.0(N=46)	7.0 / 30 ESS · 23%	[0.0%–56.7%]	EXPLORATORY
TECHNICAL breakdown	LARGE	7d	7.0(N=33)	7.0 / 30 ESS · 23%	[0.0%–56.7%]	EXPLORATORY
TECHNICAL breakdown	LARGE	14d	7.0(N=20)	7.0 / 30 ESS · 23%	[0.0%–56.6%]	EXPLORATORY
TECHNICAL breakdown	LARGE	30d	0.0(N=3)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[2.5%–68.5%]	EXPLORATORY
TECHNICAL breakdown	MID	3d	0.0(N=14)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[19.5%–70.8%]	EXPLORATORY
TECHNICAL breakdown	MID	7d	0.0(N=13)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[31.0%–83.3%]	EXPLORATORY
TECHNICAL breakdown	MID	14d	0.0(N=5)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[20.1%–84.6%]	EXPLORATORY
TECHNICAL breakdown	SMALL	3d	0.0(N=9)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[28.4%–80.4%]	EXPLORATORY
TECHNICAL breakdown	SMALL	7d	0.0(N=7)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[35.4%–87.3%]	EXPLORATORY
TECHNICAL breakdown	SMALL	14d	0.0(N=2)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[34.3%–86.6%]	EXPLORATORY
TECHNICAL breakout uptrend	LARGE	3d	0.0(N=4)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[1.6%–65.8%]	EXPLORATORY
TECHNICAL breakout uptrend	LARGE	7d	0.0(N=4)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[0.0%–58.5%]	EXPLORATORY
TECHNICAL breakout uptrend	LARGE	14d	0.0(N=3)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[6.9%–74.7%]	EXPLORATORY
TECHNICAL consolidation	LARGE	3d	4.0(N=101)	4.0 / 30 ESS · 13%	[1.6%–66.1%]	EXPLORATORY
TECHNICAL consolidation	LARGE	7d	4.0(N=80)	4.0 / 30 ESS · 13%	[0.0%–59.3%]	EXPLORATORY
TECHNICAL consolidation	LARGE	14d	3.0(N=51)	3.0 / 30 ESS · 10%	[2.4%–68.6%]	EXPLORATORY
TECHNICAL consolidation	LARGE	30d	0.0(N=1)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[0.9%–66.8%]	EXPLORATORY
TECHNICAL consolidation	MID	3d	0.0(N=22)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[14.9%–55.9%]	EXPLORATORY
TECHNICAL consolidation	MID	7d	0.0(N=19)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[14.0%–57.8%]	EXPLORATORY
TECHNICAL consolidation	MID	14d	0.0(N=12)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[17.9%–71.8%]	EXPLORATORY
TECHNICAL consolidation	MID	30d	0.0(N=1)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[14.5%–81.3%]	EXPLORATORY
TECHNICAL consolidation	SMALL	3d	0.0(N=22)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[22.5%–64.4%]	EXPLORATORY
TECHNICAL consolidation	SMALL	7d	0.0(N=16)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[33.9%–80.3%]	EXPLORATORY
TECHNICAL consolidation	SMALL	14d	0.0(N=10)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[33.6%–84.3%]	EXPLORATORY
TECHNICAL overbought uptrend	LARGE	3d	6.0(N=20)	6.0 / 30 ESS · 20%	[0.1%–59.9%]	EXPLORATORY
TECHNICAL overbought uptrend	LARGE	7d	6.0(N=18)	6.0 / 30 ESS · 20%	[0.1%–59.9%]	EXPLORATORY
TECHNICAL overbought uptrend	LARGE	14d	6.0(N=16)	6.0 / 30 ESS · 20%	[4.3%–66.9%]	EXPLORATORY
TECHNICAL overbought uptrend	LARGE	30d	0.0(N=5)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[0.0%–54.8%]	EXPLORATORY
TECHNICAL overbought uptrend	MID	3d	0.0(N=2)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[20.2%–87.0%]	EXPLORATORY
TECHNICAL overbought uptrend	SMALL	3d	0.0(N=2)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[32.4%–85.1%]	EXPLORATORY
TECHNICAL overbought uptrend	SMALL	7d	0.0(N=2)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[34.3%–86.6%]	EXPLORATORY
TECHNICAL overbought uptrend	SMALL	14d	0.0(N=2)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[34.3%–86.6%]	EXPLORATORY
TECHNICAL oversold downtrend	SMALL	3d	0.0(N=4)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[34.0%–86.8%]	EXPLORATORY
TECHNICAL oversold downtrend	SMALL	7d	0.0(N=2)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[32.4%–85.1%]	EXPLORATORY
TECHNICAL pullback in uptrend	LARGE	3d	0.0(N=16)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[14.2%–61.8%]	EXPLORATORY
TECHNICAL pullback in uptrend	LARGE	7d	0.0(N=14)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[25.7%–77.3%]	EXPLORATORY
TECHNICAL pullback in uptrend	LARGE	14d	0.0(N=8)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[24.8%–85.7%]	EXPLORATORY
TECHNICAL pullback in uptrend	MID	3d	0.0(N=1)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[17.8%–84.6%]	EXPLORATORY
TECHNICAL pullback in uptrend	SMALL	3d	0.0(N=4)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[34.0%–86.8%]	EXPLORATORY
TECHNICAL pullback in uptrend	SMALL	7d	0.0(N=2)	0.0 / 30 ESS · 0%	[32.4%–85.1%]	EXPLORATORY

Engine dashboard

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